Description

This analysis provides a forecast of BTC prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2024-12-01 00:00:00+00:00 84822.914787 89493.559143 94159.490558 99167.160295 104386.072786 109661.439614 115393.518265
2024-12-08 00:00:00+00:00 76803.786397 83939.506681 91265.047100 99337.169206 107971.747905 116920.540090 126885.425509
2024-12-15 00:00:00+00:00 71918.317851 80816.527109 90148.813340 100644.497408 112097.733001 124194.563811 137914.806424
2024-12-22 00:00:00+00:00 67076.001416 77190.726914 87993.727668 100354.716535 114070.218068 128785.360279 145729.226353
2024-12-29 00:00:00+00:00 64316.636681 75543.056043 87721.348195 101861.088871 117771.841443 135067.174157 155232.954564
2025-01-05 00:00:00+00:00 61642.962119 73762.583007 87096.620378 102783.393587 120657.841061 140315.213201 163490.120386
2025-01-12 00:00:00+00:00 58785.471336 71584.290658 85852.847606 102845.880942 122434.735301 144209.260622 170141.295609
2025-01-19 00:00:00+00:00 56111.967128 69465.446556 84538.414042 102696.096816 123854.404175 147607.236487 176159.860364
2025-01-26 00:00:00+00:00 54823.416204 68876.911441 84916.258481 104434.725755 127395.518439 153396.082177 184905.369197
2025-02-02 00:00:00+00:00 53645.632156 68343.359788 85293.843225 106118.210694 130833.488632 159047.361694 193497.192979
2025-02-09 00:00:00+00:00 52070.706008 67254.858703 84946.770889 106885.193235 133148.585067 163365.048614 200529.364870
2025-02-16 00:00:00+00:00 50206.157269 65736.075649 84015.168870 106890.167417 134507.485995 166524.960634 206183.756686
2025-02-23 00:00:00+00:00 48641.108469 64552.561373 83469.226545 107356.230021 136435.348651 170399.310577 212759.215026
2025-03-02 00:00:00+00:00 46944.617586 63147.500722 82603.876416 107392.873292 137818.118690 173615.500547 218563.922572
2025-03-09 00:00:00+00:00 46017.673437 62666.235538 82839.895900 108751.323410 140789.641440 178733.488706 226665.207282
2025-03-16 00:00:00+00:00 44335.941794 61167.915917 81760.294954 108435.493962 141674.248808 181311.072646 231696.830687
2025-03-23 00:00:00+00:00 43664.637883 60932.522021 82235.700040 110036.472485 144910.523068 186744.621277 240211.659476
2025-03-30 00:00:00+00:00 42748.408102 60344.360545 82235.920949 111017.205100 147363.713056 191222.367371 247578.721244
2025-04-06 00:00:00+00:00 41468.829599 59238.773680 81539.750011 111083.584674 148649.650730 194253.951975 253174.502377
2025-04-13 00:00:00+00:00 40155.538575 58046.544119 80694.122348 110924.237086 149623.566971 196882.761864 258269.388160
2025-04-20 00:00:00+00:00 39777.943129 58081.437311 81421.006442 112773.463440 153138.101416 202676.203697 267311.685763
2025-04-27 00:00:00+00:00 39397.104089 58094.374863 82106.874420 114563.685466 156581.231300 208396.455209 276296.254313
2025-05-04 00:00:00+00:00 38631.012047 57560.429306 82054.796744 115379.182577 158769.966822 212548.291227 283339.386602